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By Andrew Nette

Electioneering on the streets of Phnom Penh by the opposition Sam Rainsy party Credit:Andrew Nette/IPS

PHNOM PENH, Jul 28 (IPS) - The old saying ‘be careful what you wish for’ is apt in the wake of the decisive victory of the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) in the country’s national election on the weekend.

“They (CPP) now have a free chance to conduct their affairs and do what they want, said one prominent Cambodian observer. “The question is what will they do?”

Installed by the Vietnamese in 1979, CPP or the People’s Republic of Kampuchea government as they were then called ruled throughout the 1980s until the fall of the Soviet Union and economic reality forced them to accept an international peace deal and UN-supervised multi-party elections in 1993.

Although they lost that poll to the royalist Funcinpec party headed by Prince Norodom Ranariddh, son of the country’s former monarch Norodom Sihanouk, CPP bluffed and bullied its way into a coalition arrangement continuing, in name at least, until these elections.

“With huge power comes huge responsibility. Before CPP could blame others for their problems,” said the Cambodian observer. Now there is no one to blame if things go wrong but themselves.”

Despite reports of irregularities, especially in the capital Phnom Penh where the opposition is claiming a significant number of people were prevented from voting because of problems with the voter list, 75 percent of Cambodia’s eight million registered voters cast their ballots on Sunday.

While the exact size of CPP’s majority remains unknown it will easily be enough for them to govern alone, as the country’s Prime Minister Hun Sen had already indicated is his wish.

Such a strategy is possible following a constitutional change stipulating government can be formed on a simple majority rather than two-thirds majority as was the case in previous elections.

While the Sam Rainsy Party, the main opposition force, made some gains, overall the opposition’s share of seats in the country’s 123 member National Assembly could be reduced compared to the previous poll in 2003.

Virtually every local and international political commentator had expected CPP to win and win big.

A national grassroots machine, using much the same structure as was in place in the 1980s, deep pockets, and control of the country’s electronic media, meant the result was never in doubt.

In addition to their unequal access to the media, opposition parties and some human rights organisations also charge CPP with orchestrating a campaign of intimidation, vote buying and dirty tricks in the lead-up to the July 27 poll.

Although it is unclear to what extent it was a factor, many feel the nationalistic feelings whipped up by the country’s standoff with Thailand over the 11th century Preah Vihear temple, may have worked in CPP’s favour.

The dispute, now entering its second week, has seen 500 Thai and 1,000 Cambodian troops, squaring off against each other over an approximately four square kilometer disputed piece of land near the temple.

However, the most significant issue behind the win is Cambodia’s so-called ‘peace dividend’.

Although the country remains beset by problems, many Cambodians believe the country is going in the right direction after decades of instability. The civil war is over and the economy has been growing rapidly.

In the months leading up to the ballot, CPP positioned itself well to take credit for this rapid economic growth while shunting responsibility for problems such as skyrocketing fuel and food prices onto international factors beyond its control.

The business community, including many foreign interests and most of the country’s wealthiest local business tycoons, strongly supported CPP’s continued hold on power.

A weak and divided opposition further assisted CPP. While a preliminary estimate by the Committee for Free and Fair Elections in Cambodia puts the non-CPP total vote at just under 40 percent, this was split between 10 parties.

The royalist Funcinpec party, which originated in the early 1980s as part of the anti-Vietnamese resistance and has subsequently stood in as the CPP’s coalition partner since the first poll in 1993, has been decimated.

“The opposition will have to formulate a new strategy involving younger people, not just focusing on attack politics,” said the Cambodian observer. “They are also going to have to get serious about unifying or face the prospect of being further marginalised.”

While there are factions in the CPP their deliberations and internal differences have been largely kept out of the public eye and held in check by rigorous party discipline.

Although these could now come to the surface given CPP’s unassailable hold on power, others contend that the party’s long history means it’s senior members are mature enough to handle conflict and share power.

“I can only say that it is an enormous task and whether it (CPP) stays monolithic or not depends on whether Hun Sen can control his own party,” said Benny Widyono, former UN Secretary General’s Representative in Cambodia during the peace plan in the early 1990s.

The son of peasant farmers, 57 year-old Hun Sen is widely derided in much of the Western media for his combative, sometimes bizarre political invective, and his background as a former Khmer Rouge cadre before he fled to Vietnam to join the resistance to Pol Pot.

He has been in power since being installed as head of the Vietnamese-backed regime in 1985.

“He is always three or four steps ahead of the opposition because he is smart and works until 2 am in the morning and he is very good at picking people to support him,” said Widyono.

Instrumental in steering CPP towards market economics in the late 1980s, Hun Sen has since co-opted, removed and outsmarted all his rivals.

“A person who sits on the head of the tiger cannot fall down,” said Chea Vannath, a regular commentator on Cambodian political affairs. “You must hang in there. Same for CPP they feel they must stay in power to stabilise things.”

Exactly how much power Hun Sen has and whether he is prepared to tackle some of the vested interests standing in the way of reform, are key questions following the Jul. 27 election results.

In addition to negotiating a settlement to the ongoing conflict over Preah Vihear, the country faces significant economic challenges.

Although successful in generating billions in foreign investment, Cambodia’s weak regulatory and legal frameworks, endemic corruption and the poor state of its judiciary are significant barriers to long-term sustainable growth.

“They (CPP) are good at many things but their key weakness is that they are not good at the economy,” said Vannath.

Cambodia is facing a looming resource boom, with the immediate focus being the exploration already underway in the waters off Cambodia’s coast to determine the extent of the country’s reserve, thought to be significant.

‘Do we become Malaysia or Nigeria?” asked Vannath.

“Unless the CPP strengthen their leadership of the economy the problems we currently face will grow.”

Managing Cambodia’s growth, while ensuring greater equity, is another challenge.

“We face two options,” said the Cambodian observer “We can continue like this, building the country for 5 – 10 percent of the population who are rich or we can have far more equitable growth where the rich can still grow but at a much slower pace.”

There are also concerns that CPP’s resounding victory could result in a reduction of the already fragile political space available to opposition and human rights organisations.

The poor showing by opposition parties in Saturday’s poll may further reduce the checks and balances in the nation’s political system.

“A weak opposition means serious problems for the country and this could mean shrinking space for the human rights organisations,” said Kek Galabru, head of local rights organisation Licadho.

But while some question whether a return to the one party political dynamics similar to the eighties is possible, the reality is Cambodia has changed so over the last two decades that such a move, even if the government wanted it, is impossible to pull off.

Cambodia has a small but growing middle class and an overwhelming young population that are exposed to the world that, as the country develops, will begin to demand that their interests are safeguarded.

“A return to 1979? Definitely not,” said Widyono. “In 1979 Cambodia was completely isolated, now you have journalists, foreign businessmen and aid people all here. The place has fully opened up and it cannot go back.”

Cambodia’s ruling party has claimed a landslide victory in parliamentary elections held at the weekend.

Hours after polling stations closed on Sunday, the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), led by the prime minister, Hun Sen, appeared to be “leading everywhere”, a party spokesman said.

Estimates from party agents nationwide indicated the CPP had won 91 seats in the 123-seat lower house compared with 26 for the main opposition, Khieu Kanharith told reporters.

“We can claim a landslide victory - it is certain,” he said, adding that vote counting had been completed in most constituencies.

Official results were expected later in the week.

Thun Saray, head of the Cambodian election monitoring group Comfrel, said it was “early to declare victory, but the trend shows that CPP is winning”.

However, Sam Rainsy, the main opposition leader, dismissed the claims and called for a re-run of the polls in districts around the capital Phnom Penh.

“Neither party won more than two-thirds of the seats,” he told reporters, estimating that no party received more than 70 seats, according to a tally by his supporters.

Missing names

He also said that 200,000 of Phnom Penh’s 722,000 voters had not been able to cast ballots because their names were missing from the electoral lists.

“We don’t accept the result in Phnom Penh,” Sam Rainsy, whose party held 24 seats in the last parliament, said. “I demand a re-run of the election in Phnom Penh to bring justice to voters.”

“I call for a demonstration in Phnom Penh. I appeal to all people whose names were unfairly deleted - please hold a huge protest in Phnom Penh.”

Election observers reported a number of cases of voters’ names being removed from the lists, but they said they doubted the problem was as widespread as Sam Rainsy claimed.

“The atmosphere for the election day is better than past elections. But the most prominent point is that the turnout was low and a lot of names disappeared,” Hang Puthea, head of the Nicfec group of election monitors, said.

But he added: “I can’t believe that as many as 200,000 names went missing. I could believe the number is maybe 20,000.”

About 17,000 domestic and international observers monitored the voting at more than 15,000 polling stations.

Previous polls held in Cambodia were marred by violence. Scores of people - mainly opposition supporters and activists - were killed or beaten in the run-up to elections in 1998.

Election monitors said political violence had diminished greatly but unequal access to the media was still a problem.

More than eight million people were registered to vote and 11 parties competed in Sunday’s poll, the fourth since the end of the civil war.

Border dispute

Analysts had expected the vote to usher in a new term for Hun Sen, who has held control of the country for 23 years.

Monitors said there were missing names from voter lists [AFP]

The former Khmer Rouge soldier’s popularity at the polls was buoyed by a surge of nationalism amid a tense border dispute with neighbouring Thailand.

Voters appeared to rally around the 57-year-old who has a reputation for being a strong leader.

He had been expected to win the vote even before the military standoff escalated earlier this month, but patriotic passions over the Preah Vihear temple and Hun Sen’s firm stance against Thailand swayed many undecided voters in his favour, analysts say.

Many voters said their overriding concern was the territorial dispute with Thailand.

“I will vote for those who can solve the issue of Preah Vihear temple immediately after they take power,” Lam Chanvanda, a 56-year-old businessman, said as he stood in a long queue of voters.

“Before I was never interested in the border, but now it is in my heart.”

Thousands of soldiers from both sides are facing off near the 11th-century Khmer temple. Foreign ministers from the two nations are set to meet on Monday in hopes of resolving the conflict.

“Everybody now supports the government because this is a national issue,” Kek Galabru, a prominent Cambodian human rights activist and election monitor, said.